OECD projects 2.9% global growth in 2026

The OECD's Interim Economic Outlook projects global growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. Alternative supply routes, strategic-reserve releases, production outside the Gulf and weaker Chinese demand partly absorbed the Middle East energy shock. AI investment continues to support trade; the OECD says almost two-thirds of growth in global goods trade now comes from AI-related products. The baseline remains highly sensitive to the conflict, with inflation expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026.