UNEP says the no-overshoot path to 1.5°C is gone

The UN Environment Programme released Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return on October 21, concluding that the chance of holding warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot is gone. Its lowest-overshoot scenario peaks around 1.7-1.8°C near mid-century, then relies on sustained cuts and carbon-dioxide removal to return to 1.5°C by 2100. Against 2025 levels, the pathway requires emissions reductions of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040; renewable electricity capacity must triple by 2035 and coal's share must fall by more than half. Current policies point to about 2.8°C of warming, while fully delivered national commitments still imply about 2.6°C. The report also cautions that removing roughly 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide would be expensive and unproven at scale, so it cannot substitute for direct cuts.