European lowland reserves lack both stable climates and wildlife corridors

Researchers from iDiv, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and the University of Jena analyzed climate stability across 78,793 European protected areas and modeled connectivity among 10,908 sites for 10 large-mammal species. The framework includes slope, roads, habitat suitability and the energy required for movement. Under high-emissions projections, the median estimated time that protected areas retain current temperature conditions is just 0.9 years in Germany and 0.55 in Poland, versus 11.8 in Portugal and 16.2 in Greece. Mountain systems including the Alps, Pyrenees and Carpathians are more likely to combine stable conditions with movement routes, while lowlands in Germany, the UK and Ireland face the double risk of rapidly moving climates and narrow pathways. This is a modeled planning framework, not a certain forecast of future migration; local land use, species behavior and restoration costs still require field validation.