Pledges from 154 Parties remain far off a 1.5°C path

Ahead of COP31, UNFCCC published its 2026 Nationally Determined Contributions synthesis. It covers 127 new NDCs recorded from January 2024 through August 2026, representing 154 Parties to the Paris Agreement and about 70–71% of global 2019 greenhouse-gas emissions. The report says 98% of Parties involve local authorities, business or civil society in implementation, and 90% say the first global stocktake informed their new commitments, showing climate policy moving deeper into economic governance. Yet reductions remain clearly insufficient. Current pledges put 2035 global emissions only about 6% below 2019; full delivery of every conditional element would reach roughly 9%. Long-term targets imply best-estimate warming of about 1.7–2.3°C, so returning to 1.5°C requires substantial additional cuts. The report synthesizes promises and modelled projections, not completed reductions. Finance, technology, capacity and domestic implementation determine delivery.