U.S. structural losses from fire could nearly triple by 2060

A University of Colorado Boulder team reconstructed risk using burned area, development and fire impacts from 1945–2023, then combined weather, climate and housing density to project through 2060. With moderate mitigation but no new building or vegetation adaptation, structural losses nearly triple. The West remains the loss center, while central prairies and grasslands see the fastest risk increase; about 30% of western census tracts facing the highest increase also carry poverty and high housing burden. Building codes, siting, vegetation management and vulnerability assessment must work together.