Fossil CO2 emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026

The 21st Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion tonnes of fossil CO2 emissions in 2026, down 0.4% year on year: oil falls 1.9%, gas 0.3%, while coal still rises 0.6%. Solar, wind and electric vehicles meet about two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand, but the Iran conflict and oil and gas supply shock also suppress consumption, so researchers warn that a one-year decline is not a durable peak. Including land-use change, total CO2 emissions still rise from 42.8 to 43.3 billion tonnes. The remaining 1.5°C carbon budget is about 150 billion tonnes, less than four years at today's rate. Uncertainty remains, and the long-term test is whether clean energy keeps lowering fossil emissions after geopolitical disruption fades.